Suspicious Betting Activity on Prediction Markets Around Venezuela Crisis
January 3, 2026
Terrence O'Brien, the weekend editor at The Verge with over 18 years of journalism experience—including a decade as managing editor at Engadget—is spotlighting a compelling incident involving prediction markets and political upheaval.
Just before the U.S. military launched an operation against Venezuela, leading to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, a particular account on Polymarket exhibited highly suspicious betting activity. The market, which tracks events like Maduro's removal from power, showed very low odds—around $0.07—for his being out of office by January 31, 2026, late on Friday evening.
Within less than 24 hours of the military action, a newly created account made significant investments, totaling over $30,000 the day prior to the attack, and quickly amassed profits exceeding $408,000. The account was only created a few days earlier, raising eyebrows due to the timing and scale of its bets, which seemed to suggest inside information.
Social media users quickly flagged this activity, speculating that the bettor might be connected to inside sources, possibly even linked to the Pentagon. Joe Pompliano, an investor and podcaster, commented on X (formerly Twitter) that “Insider trading is not only allowed on prediction markets; it’s encouraged.”
Instances like this are not isolated. Past episodes on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have shown similar insider trading patterns, yet these companies seem reluctant to address the issue. They often defend their platform’s purpose as providing news and insights rather than a fair betting ground, which complicates efforts to regulate such behavior.
Reaching out for comment, both Kalshi and Polymarket have yet to respond. This incident raises important questions about the integrity of prediction markets and their susceptibility to insider trading, especially when dealing with sensitive political events.
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