Tesla’s Self-Driving Promises: The Reality Versus Musk’s Predictions

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Last year, Tesla claimed it was on the verge of launching a robotaxi service that would operate fully autonomously, requiring no human supervision, and be accessible to over half the US population. Tesla CEO Elon Musk confidently projected that by the end of 2025, this ambitious vision would become a reality. However, the current situation paints a different picture.

The Current State of Tesla’s Robotaxi Service

In cities like Austin and San Francisco, Tesla’s “robotaxi” program remains under supervision. Every ride involves an employee present in the vehicle, ready to intervene via a “kill switch” if necessary. While there have been some tests conducted without supervision, the extent and frequency of these trials remain unclear. Importantly, these cities do not even account for 50% of the US population, let alone the nationwide rollout Musk envisioned.

Musk’s Shifting Goals for Full Self-Driving

Recently, Elon Musk revised his expectations, stating that Tesla needs to accumulate approximately 10 billion miles of driving data before achieving “safe, unsupervised self-driving.” As of now, Tesla’s FSD system has logged just over 7 billion miles — a significant gap from Musk’s new target.

For years, Musk has promised that Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) would eventually operate autonomously, allowing users to drive without supervision and even use their phones during trips. Currently, FSD is classified as Level 2 automation, meaning drivers must remain attentive, ready to take control at any moment.

Why the Discrepancies?

Despite Musk’s optimistic projections, Tesla’s system remains supervised, and the company has been notably cautious about deploying fully autonomous vehicles. The company’s initial plans, outlined in the 2016 Master Plan Part Deux, suggested that around 6 billion miles would be needed before regulators could approve "true" self-driving.

Conversely, states like California and Nevada have allowed companies like Waymo to operate fully driverless, fully autonomous vehicles with proper permits. Tesla’s reluctance—or strategic decision—to hold back from granting full autonomy likely stems from legal and liability concerns.

Liability and Regulatory Challenges

Tesla’s cautious stance appears to be tied to liability. The company maintains that as long as a human driver is responsible, it can avoid liability for accidents. When incidents occur, Tesla has fought liability in court and often emerged victorious, citing that their vehicles are only Level 2 systems.

However, once Tesla shifts to unsupervised, fully autonomous driving, the legal liabilities could significantly increase. The question remains: will Tesla be willing to accept responsibility for accidents in a fully driverless fleet? This legal line could be the real barrier to launching the promised full autonomy.

The Path Forward

While Musk continues to adjust his goals, the reality remains that Tesla’s self-driving technology still has a long way to go. The shift from supervised to unsupervised driving involves technological, regulatory, and legal hurdles that have yet to be fully addressed.

In summary:

Tesla’s robotaxi service is still supervised and not available to all.
Musk’s goalposts keep moving; 10 billion miles of data are now required before “safe” unsupervised driving.
The legal liability involved in fully autonomous vehicles remains a significant concern.

As the timeline for true autonomous vehicles extends, industry watchers and customers alike remain cautious about Elon Musk’s bold predictions becoming reality anytime soon.